Non-football fans may long for the summer breaks when the season ends. Little do they realise that this is exactly when the news and media are in their element, with transfer rumours and pre-season drama. Last summer, major moves like Kylian Mbappé's transfer to Real Madrid were creating a feeling that Madrid’s European dominance is set to continue - though, in hindsight, it was the opposite.
As we look into outright odds for the upcoming season and transfers, the upcoming release of FC 26 in September may be a potentially useful source of information. This article looks at how these digital stats can reflect real-world outcomes, and whether it gives us an idea of how next season will shape up. For reviews and bonuses for these oddsmakers, click here.
How ratings reflect reality
EA Sports' rating system isn't arbitrary, and it’s not as bad as some people make it out to be. It’s decided by a rather complex formula, and we don’t know every variable it takes into account, but we do know it's from over 6,000 of them.
Individually, player attributes like pace and shooting may not seem to mean much. But, when added together, it can give a good representation of how strong certain teams are by representing their on-field ability. And, while managers do have a large role to play in football, we cannot overlook the fact that often, the best players usually end up winning the biggest trophies.
The latest transfers will very quickly be represented upon the release of FC 26, and it provides an interesting snapshot. To take it a step further, you could even simulate a career mode to see how things pan out…
The reason why this is more useful than it seems is that it actually helps represent squad depth, too, and weakness areas. Big singings can capture headlines, but when looking at the likes of Arsenal pick up various depth options this summer, their seemingly modest and cheap transfers amount to a lot more when simulating a whole season - because it allows for better rotations and fatigue management.
Leicester City's 5000/1 upset vs. FIFA 16
Of course, there are always anomalies, and there was no bigger upset than Leicester City's Premier League win in 2016. It defied the oddsmakers of course, who famously gave them 5000/1 odds, but it also showed that FIFA 16’s ratings didn’t represent reality. In-game, players like N'Golo Kanté (77), Riyad Mahrez (76) and Jamie Vardy (75) were clearly underrated somewhat. Though, in fairness to FIFA, their ratings did improve throughout the season due to their form, and so there is a real-time adjustment to the game. In the end, though, it was all about the manager’s tactics and management which got them over the line, showing how truly unpredictable football can be.
Using FC 26 as an analytical tool
We can’t take FC 26’s release too seriously, but it doesn’t mean we can’t use it at all. Seeing the squad rating adjustments, particularly when comparing them to FC 25, can actually be a good way get a feel for how the summer went for different clubs. Though, if you have specialist knowledge of a team to see they’re underrated, both on FC 26 and in the bookmakers, then this will always prevail…